RESEARCH INTERESTS
  • Economic Inequality in Eastern Europe and East Asia
  • Wealthy Elites and State Capture 
  • Secessionist and International Conflicts
  • Great Power Competition in East Asia
  • Authoritarian Regimes, Legacies, and Nostalgia
  • Democratization and Social Media
  • Comparative Populism

PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATIONS
  • Ion Marandici, Wealth Inequality, Political Ties and Nomenklatura Capitalism: Evidence from a New Dataset from the Post-Soviet Region (Forthcoming)

    Abstract: This article examines empirically the relationship between nomenklatura membership, wealth accumulation and political ties across the post-Soviet region. It introduces the Post-Soviet Oligarchs (PSO) dataset, containing the socio-demographic characteristics of the superrich across the former Soviet republics. While the article finds partial support in favour of the nomenklatura capitalism hypothesis, statistical analysis also points to distinct regional patterns of wealth and political inequality. Thus, the most extensive overlap of wealth and power is observed in the authoritarian regimes of Central Asia and South Caucasus, where the ties to the Soviet regime facilitated the exertion of political influence after 1991, which in turn enabled wealth accumulation. By contrast, in democratizing contexts, the connections between politicians and superrich point to an interdependent relationship between the economic and political spheres with wealth featuring as a major power resource.

  • Ion Marandici, A Second Cold War? Explaining Changes in the American Discourse on China: Evidence from the Presidential Debates (1960–2020), Journal of Chinese Political Science (Online), May 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-023-09857-z

    Abstract: When and how do the American political elites react discursively to China as a rising power? Do they depict it as an economic or military risk? What role do discursive references to China play in the US populist discourses? Relying on the thematic and critical discourse analysis of the American presidential debates, this article explores the way US politicians portray China throughout three eras marked by distinct global power configurations. Several types of discourses have been identified. In contrast to the belligerent rhetoric of the early Cold War, when China was framed as a major military threat, after 2004, presidential candidates started referring to Beijing as an economic rival. By 2008, the emerging bipartisan consensus centered on China as mainly a trade competitor. By contrast, populist narratives in 2016 and later stood out as they included emotional appeals and inflated the risks of the Sino-American rivalry to mobilize voters. In doing so, the populists sought to forge coalitions in favor of protectionist policies among those voters, who were employed in manufacturing sectors facing growing international competition. The anti-China mentions reached a peak during the 2020 debates amidst the pandemic when populist candidates used biased language, relying on tropes resembling the 19th century racist “yellow peril” rhetoric. 

  • Ion Marandici, Collective Action, Memories of 1989, and Social Media: Novel Insights from Moldova’s Twitter Revolution, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Volume 56 (1), 2023.   https://doi.org/10.1525/cpcs.2022.1716515

    Abstract: How does social media facilitate deliberation and collective remembering of past revolutions amid protests in democratizing contexts? To explore this question, I performed a qualitative and quantitative analysis of a unique archive of tweets posted during Moldova’s Twitter Revolution in 2009. The research revealed that Twitter enabled users living in Moldova and Romania to connect online, share information, and chat about the meanings of revolution, civil society activism, and resistance to state oppression, all while providing updates to Western media and warning the public about human rights abuses. Also, the research uncovered that the #pman audiences from Moldova and Romania framed the protest differently. Whereas the Moldovans regarded it as a demonstration against election fraud, the Romanian twitterers framed the events as an anti-communist uprising analogous to the 1989 Revolution, which they mythologized to extract useful strategies for action communicated to the Moldovan activists. Moreover, twitterers from both countries engaged in a transborder conversation about unionism and national identity. Despite Twitter’s documented positive impact on political engagement and Western media reporting, it simultaneously contributed to misinformation through the circulation of rumors, conspiracy theories, and calls for violence. Access Postprint

  • Ion Marandici, Structural bias, polarized mediation and conflict resolution failure: a comparative examination of the disputes in Transnistria and Donbas, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 23 (1), 2023. doi: 10.1080/14683857.2022.210118 

    Abstract: Under what conditions does conflict resolution fail? This article identifies several undertheorized factors hindering conflict resolution. It argues that structural bias, inadequate leverage and a polarized mediation format render negotiations ineffective, undermining the peace process. Durable peace settlements are unlikely when mediators become parties to the conflict, patronize the rebels, shape the domestic politics of the parent-states, and promote resolution plans advancing their security interests. The concepts of structural bias and polarized mediation are further explored by employing a structured focused comparison of the conflict management strategies in Transnistria (Moldova) and Donbas (Ukraine). The comparative examination revealed that Russia, as a power mediator, displayed a structural bias toward the rebel side but lacked sufficient leverage to impose a settlement on both parties. It attempted to increase its influence over Ukraine by getting entangled in the Donbas conflict, recognizing the secessionist regions and launching a conventional war against Kyiv. Access Postprint

  • ​Ion Marandici, The Perils of Biased Power Mediation: Insights from the Secessionist Conflicts in Moldova and Ukraine. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs 23, no. 1 (2022): 10-16. doi:10.1353/gia.2022.0003.

Abstract: This article examines several of the factors, which contributed to the lack of progress toward durable peace in Moldova and pre-2022 Ukraine. In doing so, it focuses on the role of biased mediation, domestic causal mechanisms as well as the tension between Europeanization and conflict resolution. Access Postprint.
 
Abstract: Why did Russia’s authoritarian leader decide to annex Crimea? Why couldn’t Ukraine resist the Russian aggression? This study relies on prospect theory to illuminate the decision-making in Moscow and Kyiv that led to the takeover of Crimea. First, I identify the turning points of the Euromaidan crisis preceding the annexation and trace how Putin’s assessment of the status quo shifted repeatedly between the domains of losses and gains. In the domain of losses, the Russian leader, influenced by a neoimperial faction within the presidential administration, became more risk acceptant, annexed the peninsula, and escalated the hybrid warfare. In doing so, the paper shows that Putin framed the intervention using nationalist themes, drawing on salient historical analogies from the past. Second, new documentary evidence such as the minutes of Ukraine’s National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) and participant testimonies reveals that the decision makers in Kyiv could not mount an effective defense due to squabbles among coalition partners, the breakdown of the military chain of command in Crimea, the looming threat of a full-scale invasion from the East, and the inflated expectations regarding the West’s capacity to deter Russia’s aggression. Third, the article relies on prospect theory to explain why after Crimea’s annexation, Putin refrained from continuing the territorial expansion deeper into Ukraine, opting instead to back secessionism in Donbas. This account highlights the explanatory power of prospect theory compared to alternative frameworks, pointing out, at the same time, the need to incorporate causal mechanisms from competing theoretical traditions in studies of foreign policy decision-making. Part 1: Access a Copy and Postprint. 
Part 2: Ion Marandici, "Follow-up Observations on Prospect Theory, the Annexation of Crimea and the Second Invasion of Ukraine, " Journal of Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society, Ibidem Verlag, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 181-189, October 2022.

 
Abstract: How does political nostalgia influence voting? Although nostalgic voters have been often mentioned as central to the rise of populism in the West, scholars have rarely shown empirically how nostalgia influences electoral choice. In this paper, I use survey data from 2009 and 2016 to investigate the extent and electoral impact of Soviet nostalgia in the context of democratizing Moldova. First, the paper reveals and explains why political nostalgia is distributed unevenly across Moldova’s territory with certain regions and ethnocultural groups embracing romanticized views of the Communist past more often than others. Second, the paper demonstrates that nostalgic orientations toward the past and cultural factors rather than perceptions of economic conditions structure party choice in post-Soviet Moldova. The paper also identifies the discursive similarities between varieties of Western populism, Euroscepticism, illiberal worldviews, and the nostalgic appeals of the Moldovan Left. Access Postprint.
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Abstract: Drawing on state-centered perspectives, this article explores the link between oligarchic state capture and democratization by looking at Moldova between 2009 and 2019. It proposes the concept of oligarchic state capture, a situation where business magnates exert influence over all three branches of government through extensive networks. While the major oligarchs in Moldova cooperate to bring down competitive authoritarianism, they derail democratization. In contrast to earlier studies emphasizing the interest of oligarchs in wealth defense, the present study explains how oligarchs engage in extreme state exploitation and thereby undermine public trust in democratic institutions. Partial deoligarchization succeeds after inter-oligarchic conflicts and popular backlash enable the formation of a fragile multiethnic, transideological political coalition that demands the restoration of state autonomy vis-à-vis the wealthy elites. Access Article.


Abstract: What explains the economic endurance of the post-Soviet unrecognized states? Drawing insights from the scholarship on economic institutions, rentier states, and patron–client relations, this article explores the resource-extraction strategies of the post-Soviet de facto states via a paired comparison of Transnistria (PMR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The authors conceptualize the post-Soviet de facto states as rentier clients and discuss the defining characteristics of PMR’s oligarchic model and DPR’s provisional dirigiste system. The two secessionist regions manage production, trade, tax, construct budgets, and shape property rights regimes, while receiving vital aid from the patron-state. Access Postprint.


Abstract: This article explores nation-building processes in the Transnistrian imagined community. While some scholars describe Transnistria’s nation-building strategy as a civic, multicultural project, the analysis of recent demographic and educational data corroborated with the close examination of local media content and official discourses—all point to the emergence of a distinct political culture marked by the increasing use of the Russian language in the public sphere, and the politicization of the Moldovan identity. Discourses about ethnic and national identity in the region have evolved as the Transnistrian elites reimagine the political community as part of the Russkii Mir. These circumstances suggest that, in the long run, the breakaway region might function as the southeastern frontline of Russian irredentism with the elites of the Pridnestrovska͡ia Moldavska͡ia Respublika continuing to call on the Russian Federation to annex the parastate instead of seeking a peaceful reintegration into Moldova. Access Postprint.


Abstract: China’s politicians like to emphasize that they are building a socialist market economy based on the ideology of socialism with Chinese characteristics (中国特色社会主义). Unlike other post-communist transitions to capitalism, China’s radical economic transformations during the neoliberal era did not generate a large pool of economic losers. On the contrary, over the last three decades, seven hundred million Chinese escaped poverty. Yet, at the same time, China’s impressive economic growth has been associated with the rise of a wealthy elite, which gradually is being co-opted by the party-state. Relying on elite-level and survey data, this study goes beyond socio-demographic characteristics and investigates whether party membership, education, beliefs in upward mobility and support for an interventionist state correlate with income levels. The final section discusses the implications of the observed trends for the future of the Chinese economic model. Access Publication.

WORKING PAPERS & PAPERS UNDER REVIEW
  • War, Propaganda and Contested Identities: Rejecting the Russian Neoimperial Symbols in Moldova and Beyond (under review)
  • Rule Takers or Rule Shapers? Exploring De Facto State Agency across Patron-Client Dyads via a Paired Comparison of Transnistria and Taiwan (under review)
  • Flexible Authoritarians? Explaining Ideological Change in Russia and China ​
  • Comparing Populisms: Strategies of Othering in American and German Populist Discourses
  • Leadership Succession, Oil Prices, and Foreign Policy Crises: The Case of Russia

CHAPTERS IN EDITED VOLUMES
BOOK REVIEWS
  • Kimberly Kagan (Ed.), The Imperial Moment. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2010. Journal: AbImperio (December 2012)
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  • Martin Gilman, No Precedent, No Plan: Inside Russia's 1998 Default, Cambridge MA & London: MIT Press, 2010. Journal: Europe-Asia Studies (May 2012)

  • Thomas Ambrosio, Authoritarian Backlash: Russian Resistance to Democratization in the Former Soviet Union, Ashgate, 2009. Journal: AbImperio (Nov-Dec 2011)

  • Stephen White (ed.), Politics and the Ruling Group in Putin’s Russia. Studies in Central and Eastern Europe. Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008. Journal: Europe-Asia Studies (October 2010)

  • Paul D. Aligica and Anthony Evans, The Neoliberal Revolution in Eastern Europe: Economic Ideas in the Transition from Communism, Northampton: Edward Elgar. Monthly magazine: Contrafort (November 2010)

CONFERENCE PAPERS
  • Wealthy Elites and the Party-State in the People's Republic of China: a Permanent Nexus?, Visiting Scholars Working Papers, Center for Chinese Studies, National Central Library, Taipei, 2016.

  • The Oligarchic Intermezzo: A New-Old Form of State Capture in Postcommunism?, APSA Convention, San Francisco, September 2015 (Panel)

  • Post-Soviet Oligarchs and the Nomenklatura Capitalism Hypothesis, APSA Convention, Washington D.C., August 2014 (Poster session)

  • An Unfinished Transition: Oligarchs and Anti-oligarchic Discourses in Moldova  (2009-2012), The Organization for the Advancement of Eurasian Studies, Graduate Student Conference, Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia, NYU, April 2013

  • CPC and the Chinese Wealthy Elites: Cooperation or Growing Tensions?, Graduate Student Conference, 2014.

  • What is and What is Not a Twitter Revolution? Insights Based on the Moldovan Case, International Studies Association Convention, San Diego, April 2012

  • Social Media and Democratization: Lessons from Eastern Europe and the Middle East, co-authored with Teflah Alajmi, International Studies Association Convention, San Diego,  April 2012

  • The Moldovan-Romanian Twitter Revolution: New Media and Post-electoral Mobilization, Association for the Study of Nationalities Convention, NYC, April 2011.

  • The Factors leading to the Rise, Consolidation, and Fall of the Communists’ Party in Moldova, Midwestern Political Science Association Convention, Chicago, April 2010.

POLICY BRIEFS